The NFL has three games scheduled on Christmas Day beginning with an afternoon showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs can clinch their eighth straight AFC West title with a win, which would essentially extinguish the Raiders’ playoff hopes.
These opponents faced off in Sin City last month with the Chiefs prevailing 31-17. Oddsmakers don’t see the rematch going any differently with NFL odds for this Week 16 showdown installing the Kansas City as a hefty 10-point home favorite.
Here are my best free NFL picks for the Raiders vs. Chiefs on Monday, December 25.
Make sure to also check out our MNF prop picks and Patrick Mahomes spotlight for this AFC West clash!
Raiders vs Chiefs odds
Raiders vs Chiefs predictions
At this point in the season, we have enough data to know that, unlike past seasons during the Patrick Mahomes Era, this Kansas City Chiefs team is better on defense than offense.
While Mahomes is still a stud, the Chiefs haven’t had as many explosive plays and have had a difficult time finding reliable pass catchers outside of Travis Kelce and rookie Rashee Rice.
They’ve been lights out on the other side of the ball however, allowing the third-fewest points per game in the league (17.5) and ranking fifth in defensive success rate.
The Las Vegas Raiders are coming off a 63-point explosion against a Chargers team that looks like it’s given up on the year. However, they were shut out in Week 14 and they’re due for regression against a stingy Kansas City stop unit that held them to just three points in the second half when these teams met up last month.
During that previous meeting, the Chiefs trailed 14-0 early in the second quarter but rallied to easily win and cover the spread as 9.5-point faves. Kansas City’s ability to shut down opponents and their willingness to play conservatively with a lead has been on full display at the end of games.
The Raiders have also been similarly conservative on offense with fifth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell under center. Before last week’s outlier performance against the Chargers, the Raiders had averaged just 15.0 ppg in his previous seven starts and he sits in the Bottom 10 among all QBs in average intended air yards (surprisingly along with Mahomes).
That said, they’ve made massive strides on defense when compared to the last several years and they rank 11th in defensive EPA and 10th in defensive dropback EPA. Not only have both of these defenses been stout this season, but they’ve been at their best at the end of games with the Chiefs and Raiders tied for sixth in the league with 4.9 ppg allowed in the fourth quarter.
They’ve also rarely scored in the final frame with the Raiders 27th in the NFL in fourth-quarter scoring (4.5) and the Chiefs shockingly 32nd (2.8 ppg).
While KC is still capable of scoring in a hurry when they need to, they tend to sit on leads. As 10-point faves in this contest, they’ll likely lean on their defense and ground game to throttle the Raiders in the fourth quarter.
My best bet: Fourth-quarter Under 10.5 (-125 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Raiders vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Fourth-quarter Under 10.5Chiefs alternate spread -2.5Patrick Mahomes Under 269.5 passing yardsIsiah Pacheco Over 61.5 rushing yardsNo-sweat promo available
+454 at FanDuel
I’m a bit reluctant to lay double-digits in a divisional rivalry, especially considering the Raiders’ momentum entering this contest and how inconsistent the Chiefs have been at covering with margin.
That said, Mahomes is 10-1 SU in his career against Vegas and I do like them to win by at least a field goal at home.
Mahomes carved up this Vegas secondary in the cozy confines of Allegiant Stadium last month, completing 79.4% of his passes for 298 yards. However, it won’t be as easy for either team to throw outdoors at Arrowhead on Christmas Day with sustained winds at around 15 mph and gusting up to the 20s.
Keep in mind that even though Mahomes burned the Raiders in Week 12, the Raiders are holding opponents to just 209.6 passing yards per game. While I’m fading Mahomes on his lofty passing yards total, I still think the Chiefs will have some success offensively and they should be able to run the ball.
Isiah Pacheco returns after a two-game absence and he’s rushed for more than 65 yards in three of his last four contests. In what I expect to be a run-heavy game, he should thrive against a Raiders defense that surrenders 124.9 ypg on the ground
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raiders vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board with the Chiefs at -10.5 and the total at 43. That spread has ticked down to that key number of 10 while the total has dropped due to the weather reports and is sitting at 40.5 as of Saturday.
However, while early weather reports projected a high chance of rain, it’s now expected to be a clear day in Kansas City and winds won’t be quite as high.
The Raiders are 6-8 SU and can still make the playoffs but would likely need to win out to do that. They are fresh off a 63-21 rout of the Chargers which was a complete turnaround from their 3-0 loss to the Vikings in Week 14.
This will be their first cold-weather game of the year and will be just their second road contest since the start of November.
The Chiefs are coming off a 27-17 win against the Patriots which allowed them to snap a two-game skid where they lost to the Bills and Packers.
Raiders vs Chiefs betting trend to know
The Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS in their previous six games while the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five. That said, the one game during that span where the Chiefs covered was that Week 12 showdown in Vegas where they beat the Raiders by 14. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Chiefs.
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Raiders vs Chiefs game info
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Monday, December 25, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN or ABC |
| Opening odds: | Chiefs +10.5, 43 |
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Rohit Ponnaiya
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With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it’s little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He’s also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted “The Chez and Ro Show” with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.
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